Monday, May 3, 2010

Oil Spill On It's Way

From the Huffington Post:
GULFPORT, Miss. — Scientists say the Gulf oil spill could get into the what's called the Loop Current within a day, eventually carrying oil south along the Florida coast and into the Florida Keys.
Nick Shay, a physical oceanographer at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, said Monday once the oil enters the Loop Current, it likely will end up in the Keys and continue east into the Gulf Stream.
Shay says the oil could affect Florida's beaches, coral reefs, fisheries and ecosystem within a week.
He described the Loop Current as similar to a "conveyor belt," sweeping around the Gulf, through the Keys and right up the East Coast.
Shay says he cannot think of any scenario where the oil doesn't eventually reach the Florida Keys.
There is nothing further that needs be said, is there? We are ruined if it does land here.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

The prospect of the Keys being inundated with oil is too tragic to contemplate. It would however provide clarity on the future of real estate values in the area and the advisability of continuing a Mugs Game.

Anonymous said...

I hope you don't mind me cutting and pasting this here. Originally from comments on slopeofhope.com on 5/14/10. If true, I cannot imaging a more dire situation.

Paul Noel, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well. He writes for Pure Energy Systems today:
I...think that the situation is getting further and further out of hand. The nature of the crude had changed, indicating that the spill was collapsing the rock structures. If it is collapsing the rock structures, the least that can be said is that the rock is fragmenting and blowing up the tube with the oil. With that going on you have a high pressure abrasive sand blaster working on the kinks in the pipe eroding it causing the very real risk of increasing the leaks.

More than that is the very real risk of causing the casing to become unstable and literally blowing it up the well bringing the hole to totally open condition. Another risk arises because according to reports the crew was cementing the exterior of the casing when this happens. As a result, the well, if this was not properly completed, could begin to blow outside the casing. Another possible scenario is a sea floor collapse. If that happens Katie bar the door.

The deposit is one I have known about since 1988. The deposit is very big. The central pressure in the deposit is 165 to 170 thousand PSI [pounds per square inch]. It contains so much hydrocarbon that you simply cannot imagine it.

The oil industry has knowledge of the deposit more than they admit. The deposit is 100 miles off shore. They are drilling into the edge of the deposit to leak it down gently to be able to produce from the deposit. The deposit is so large that while I have never heard exact numbers it was described to me to be either the largest or the second largest oil deposit ever found. It is mostly a natural gas deposit. The natural gas that could be released is really way beyond the oil in quantity. It is like 10,000 times the oil in the deposit.

It is this deposit that has me reminding people of what the Shell geologist told me about the deposit. This was the quote, "Energy shortage..., Hell! We are afraid of running out of air to burn." The deposit is very large. It covers an area off shore something like 25,000 square miles. Natural Gas and Oil is leaking out of the deposit as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana almost as far as Texas. This is a really massive deposit. Punching holes in the deposit is a really scary event as we are now seeing.

Conchscooter said...

I read that article as well. The other point worth noting is that Peak Oil doesn't mean oil is running out. It means affordable oil supplies are getting tapped out. This oil spill seems to be the prime example illustrating that theory. Drilling here isn't like tapping a large desposit in Saudi Arabia.