Thursday, March 19, 2009

Euro Stress

A European group of analysts based in Holland, with something called Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin is warning the world that we all need quick action to start a slow recovery. The euro analysts suggest that if the G20 summit next month can't get it together and sort out a new currency exchange for the industrialised nations this meltdown will drag on for a decade or more with the consequent strains and risks of conflict.
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Well, given that no one is talking seriously about a do-over for the world economy or exchange rates or re-evaluating anew Bretton Woods agreement, it seems likely that late 2009 will bring us to our knees if this lot and their predictions are to be believed. what exactly a collapse means no one knows and why these angry Europeans should be believed I don't know. They explain too why they are angry.
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Their Bulletin #33 which warns of approaching unspecified catastrophe ( a known unknown perhaps?) also discusses their view of Anglo-US attempts to divide Europeans against themselves. they talk with contempt of a rift between old and new Europe, a term coined by the Bush administration in it's attempts to round up Balkan and ex-USSR states and have them rally alongside the US against Russia. Now the New Europe, from Latvia to Moldova have become a crescent of failures according to some, who will destroy the euro zone banking system.
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GEAB dismisses such talk as posturing by Anglo Saxons (is US/UK) opposed to a united Europe. They argue that the eastern states have GDPs that barely mark a ripple on the economies of Old Europe and thus present no threat to France/Germany/Italy et al. They say the British and Swiss and Americans are raising the specter of New Europe imploding and dragging down Old Europe to distract the world from the view of the US going bankrupt in spectacular fashion, and possibly before the year is out.
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GEAB says the G20 summit April 2nd is the last chance to save the world from languishing in a decade long depression. The lines are drawn. I propose to enjoy the summer as best I can, viewing this as being, in economic terms, quite possibly the equivalent of July 1939. One hopes it isn't, and if it indeed is not I shall be delighted. On the other hand, if it is, I shall be as prepared as I can be.

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